A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
